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Sat, 04 Feb 2012
Philly Winter Weather Update- Sat 8 AM
Last night's models have differences for Sunday's possible slight snow for Philadelphia. The GFS continues to have us on the northern fringe of a weak, fast moving system, giving us anything from snow flurries to a light coating. The NAM suppresses the system more to the south giving us nothing. While the NAM has not been very good this winter, it does tend to accurately predict suppression of systems to the south.
Areas to the south, especially northern Delaware and southern Chester county are more likely to see some light snow. Either way, this will NOT be a significant system and is not expected to intensify very much. My general take on this system is that it won't be much of anything.
posted: Feb 04 2012 at 8:57 am
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Fri, 03 Feb 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast-Fri PM
A continued inconsistent model forecast for the weekend. The latest GFS model, just available, shows a cold front approaching on Saturday and moving through Saturday night.
At the same time, a low pressure wave moves through on the front, just to our south. The latest GFS has this low just brushing southern PA and has some light snow falling Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Temps aloft are expected to be cold enough for snow, but surface temps may only be in the mid 30s. Either way, not much accumulation is expected at this time, with a coating to wet inch possible. It seems that temps will rise above freezing enough in the afternoon to melt much of what falls.
Any change in the intensity of the low will sling more snow up to us, while any increase in the cold flow aloft may supress it further to our south. Stay tuned- this forecast is likely to change!
Sat 2/4 Sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. High about 45
Sun 2/5: Cloudy with light snow in the morning, a coating to an inch, likely melting on most surfaces. High 40
posted: Feb 03 2012 at 12:18 pm
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Sat, 28 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Discussion - Sat PM
A weak cold front will move in late Sunday. Today was less windy than had been predicted
This coming week, we get another warmup mid-week before things get cold and wintery with the start of February. In fact, today's GFS is advertising another small snowfall for Friday morning and a cold blast for next weekend. The models have been somewhat inconsistent, so we'll have to see if there's consistency in the next model runs.
Sun 1/29: Mostly sunny and cooler. Some clouds in the late afternoon. High about 45
posted: Jan 28 2012 at 6:06 pm
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Fri, 27 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri AM
Low pressure will move to eastern Canada as high pressure gradually builds in. The airmass moving in isn't that cold, due to its Pacific origin. Another cold front will move in late Sunday.
Sat 1/28: Partly to mostly sunny and very mild. Windy!. Highs near 51
Sun 1/29: Mostly sunny and cooler. Increasing clouds in the late afternoon. High about 45
posted: Jan 27 2012 at 9:17 am
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Sun, 22 Jan 2012Philly Weekend Weather Discussion - Sun PM
Saturday's weather was captured fairly well by the models, with the GFS more accurately capturing the precipitation amounts and the NAM somewhat more accurately capturing the temperatures that didn't rise above freezing. Neither model predicted the cold weather that stayed entrenched today (Sunday.)
Most interesting is the fact that neither model had really predicted this very far in advance. Already, the overall pattern for this coming week has changed considerably than had been predicted even five days earlier.
While there will be a warmup for Monday and Tuesday, the warmup is much less than the models had been predicting last week.
For the coming weekend, there is a chance of snow again on Saturday. That said, expect things to change in a few days!
posted: Jan 22 2012 at 5:09 pm
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posted: Jan 22 2012 at 1:16 pm
Fri, 20 Jan 2012Winter Weather Update -10 PM
The latest NAM has just become available, along with the latest run of the experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model.
These models continue to show between 3 and 4 inches of snow for Philadelphia, north and west by 7AM. The snow transitions to freezing rain about 7 AM where it continues to fall as freezing rain for several hours.
The freezing rain and rain ends about 1 PM. Expect hazardous driving conditions for much of the morning, north and west of Philadelphia.
posted: Jan 20 2012 at 10:02 pm
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Philadelphia Winter Weather Forecast - Fri 6 PM
A warm-frontal type system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to our area. Somewhat warmer air approaching from the south ahead of a weak disturbance along the warm-cold boundary will lift and cause precipitation in the hours before daybreak on Saturday.
All models show enough warming of the upper atmosphere by 7AM Saturday, that snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain after 7AM. The NAM is more aggresive with the early amounts of precipitation as snow, with as much as 3-4 inches in PHL; the GFS has lower amounts of 1-2 inches of snow falling before 7AM.
The question is the transition. The NAM is colder and keeps the temps around 32 for much of the morning; the GFS warms a bit more. So the NAM suggests a a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain; the GFS transitions things to rain a bit quicker.
Based on past warm-frontal events, I think the NAM will be correct in areas just outside the city, with 3-4 inches of snow, and the amounts will then be reduced and packed down by sleet and freezing rain between 7-10 AM. Driving conditions will be dicey early, but improve by 10AM on most roads in the city. Areas just outside the city and north/west will continue to have some icing problems.
Precipitation ends early afternoon.
Sat 1/21: Snow with sleet early morning, changing to sleet, freezing rain and then rain mid morning before ending in the early afternoon. High 35.
Sun 1/22: Sunny in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. High 38.
posted: Jan 20 2012 at 6:22 pm
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Fri 2 PM
A warm-frontal type system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to our area. Somewhat warmer air approaching from the south ahead of a weak disturbance along the warm-cold boundary will lift and cause precipitation in the hours before daybreak on Saturday.
All models show enough warming of the upper atmosphere by 7AM Saturday, that snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain after 7AM. The NAM is more aggresive with the early amounts of precipitation as snow, with as much as 3-4 inches in PHL; the GFS has lower amounts of 1-2 inches of snow falling before 7AM.
The question is the transition. The NAM is colder and keeps the temps around 32 for much of the morning; the GFS warms a bit more. So the NAM suggests a a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain; the GFS transitions things to rain a bit quicker.
Based on past warm-frontal events, I think the NAM will be correct in areas just outside the city, with 3-4 inches of snow, and the amounts will then be reduced and packed down by sleet and freezing rain between 7-10 AM. Driving conditions will be dicey early, but improve by 10AM on most roads in the city. Areas just outside the city and north/west will continue to have some problems.
Precipitation ends early afternoon.
Sat 1/21: Snow with sleet early morning, changing to sleet, freezing rain and then rain mid morning before ending in the early afternoon. High 38.
Sun 1/22: Sunny and seasonably cold. High 40.
posted: Jan 20 2012 at 2:42 pm
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Thu, 19 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook - Thu PM
The latest NAM model cranks out considerable precipitation for early Saturday with several inches (2-3) of snow changing to a period of heavy sleet and freezing rain during the morning. Stay tuned
posted: Jan 19 2012 at 10:53 pm
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Wed, 18 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast - Wed PM
The forecast for the coming period continues to change. There has been very little consistency, especially with the long range forecast. The general trend is the continued alternating warm and cold periods we have had for much of this month.
Regarding this weekend, a low pressure system moves in before daybreak on Saturday. While temps will be moderating on Saturday, the timing of the precipitation before daybreak will allow the precipitation to fall initially snow mixed with sleet and then a period of freezing rain possible in the early morning. An eventual changeover to sleet and rain is likely during the day on Saturday.
Sat 1/21: Snow with sleet early morning, changing to sleet, freezing rain and then rain mid morning before ending in the afternoon. High 38.
Sun 1/22: Sunny and seasonably cold. High 40.
posted: Jan 18 2012 at 7:56 pm
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Thu, 12 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weather Outlook - Thu AM
The GFS has backed off of the low again!
Sat 1/14: Mostly sunny breezy and cold. High 36.
Sun 1/15: Partly to mostly sunny. High 32.
posted: Jan 12 2012 at 7:11 am
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Wed, 11 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weather Outlook - Wed AM
The latest GFS again shows the possibility of light snow for Sunday. An upper air disturbance is expected to move over us and develop off of the coast. The models continue to show the development occurs too far into the Atlantic to give us a storm, but the upper disturbance does crank out some light snow or flurries for us on Sunday.
Sat 1/14: Mostly sunny breezy and cold. High 36.
Sun 1/15: Cloudy and cold. Chance of light snow or flurries. High 35.
posted: Jan 11 2012 at 7:54 am
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Tue, 10 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weather Outlook - Update
The possible snow for Sunday is already gone from the models. Expect cold and clear weather for the weekend.
Sat 1/14: Sunny breezy and cold. High 36.
Sun 1/15: Sunny and cold. High 35..
posted: Jan 10 2012 at 9:29 pm
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Mon, 09 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weather Outlook -Possible Snow
This afternoon's GFS model shows an interesting possibility for this coming Sunday afternoon and night- our first possible snow.
An amplified jet stream and a low pressure system developing along the coast may be the right ingredients for a snowfall. Right now, the low tracks to our south and east, but that is often the GFS bias early in storm development. Stay tuned.
posted: Jan 09 2012 at 9:49 pm
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Sun, 08 Jan 2012Philly Weekend Weather Update- Sun AM
The temperatures got much higher yesterday than the model MOS forecasts. These very warm periods for this winter will likely continue, interspersed with colder periods. The reason is the approaching solar sunspot maximum, superimposed on global warming. See my climate forecast from Nov 27th for more information.
Today, Sunday, will have a variable amount of clouds, as a disturbance is suppressed to our south along yesterday's frontal bounday. High temps are expected to be cooler than yesterday:47.
posted: Jan 08 2012 at 8:46 am
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Wed, 04 Jan 2012Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook- Wed PM
The highly amplified upper pattern that brought the cold weather will relax a bit by Saturday, and milder temps will return. Another weak cold front will move through later Saturday, bringing temps down for Sunday. The front will stall to our south, as a disturbance moves up along the front on Monday, perhaps bringing some light showers or snow to us on Monday. Still too early to tell.
Sat 1/7: Partly sunny and mild. Some increasing clouds late in the day. High 52.
Sun 1/8: Mostly sunny in the morning, some increasing clouds in the late afternoon. High 47.
posted: Jan 04 2012 at 7:50 pm
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Mon, 19 Dec 2011Philadelphia Winter Climate Forecast- December
Here's a repost of my winter climate forecast--
While climate forecasting is not my forte (for that matter, I don't think it's anyone's forte) I do like to share with my readers what I'm thinking about regarding the upcoming 2011-2012 winter season.
My regular readers know that two years ago, I put great stock in the solar cycle (and a lesser extent the sea surface temperature cycles) to predict a very cold winter.
We have now reached a point in the current solar cycle where the expected observed increase in total solar irradiance has become evident. We are two years away from the solar maximum. While this solar maximum will be significantly lower than our last two cycles, and we are coming off of a significantly lengthy solar minimum, it's my opinion that this coming winter will approach the very mild winters we had in 1999 and 2000.
During those winters, we had unseasonably warm periods throughout the winter. Certainly we had stretches of cold weather and snow, but the 60-70 degree temps we had this weekend were very similar at that stage of the solar cycle. Add to this the greenhouse gases and I think we will have large stretches of very mild weather this winter and on average it will be very warmer than normal.
In recent past winters, we haven't really seen winter-like weather until after December 15th and I expect that to occur this year as well. But overall, I think we'll see repeated long stretches of mild weather occurring in December, January, and February this season.
I guess we'll find out if the solar cycle does affect our winter this year.
posted: Dec 19 2011 at 10:31 pm
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Fri, 16 Dec 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
A sharpening upper cyclonic flow with low pressure scooting out to sea to our south will usher in colder temps over the weekend. Some cloudiness from the low will be with us on Saturday.
As in past weeks, the amplified jet stream relaxes on Monday, allowing moderating temps to return.
Sat 12/17: Considerable cloudiness, some sun. Breezy. High 44.
Sun 12/18: Sunny and cold. High 41.
posted: Dec 16 2011 at 10:06 pm
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Fri, 09 Dec 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Forecast -Fri PM
Low pressure is moving up the coastline this evening along the old frontal boundary that moved through on Thursday. The immediate Philadelphia area will just have some cloudiness associated with this low early Saturday. As the low passes, a weak frontal boundary moves through and colder air filters in for late Saturday and Sunday.
The amplified jet stream relaxes on Monday, allowing moderating temps to return.
Sat 12/10: Some cloudiness in the morning, especially east of Philadelphia. More sunshine in the afternoon. High 44.
Sun 12/11: Sunny and cold. High 42.
posted: Dec 09 2011 at 9:04 pm
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Wed, 07 Dec 2011Philadelphia Winter Weather Update-Wed 10PM
The latest NAM model just became available. Colder air aloft moves into Philadelphia by 1AM. Precipitation ends by daybreak. Based on this data and the latest experimental HRRR model run, expect a coating to 1 inch in the immediate PHL area, but areas in Montgomery county and Chester and NW Bucks may have 1-3 inches when it ends near daybreak.
posted: Dec 07 2011 at 10:03 pm
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Philadelphia Winter Weather Update-Wed 8PM
No real changes with the models and the forecast.
The NAM continues to have the precip linger in Philadelphia long enough that a coating to an inch of wet snow is possible before ending by about 9 AM Thursday morning.
The GFS clears out the precip sooner, leaving little chance of snow at the end. Again, this will be a good chance to evaluate the recently updated/improved NAM model.
posted: Dec 07 2011 at 8:39 pm
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Tue, 06 Dec 2011Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow?
There are differences between the GFS and NAM models for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS has most of the precipitation ending before the cold air moves in. The NAM has cold air moving in early Wednesday evening while maintaining precipitation. The GFS has typically been very good, but the new NAM model has a chance to show its stuff tomorrow night.
So, this storm will be an interesting test of the new NAM model. If it's correct, expect a couple of inches of wet snow by daybreak Thursday. If the GFS is correct, expect just wet conditions, maybe a coating of wet snow on grassy surfaces. Will update again tomorrow.
10PM update-- latest NAM just became available. Like the GFS, most of the precip ends before the cold air moves in. Maybe a coating of snow at daybreak Thursday.
posted: Dec 06 2011 at 10:48 pm
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Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow?
There are differences between the GFS and NAM models for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS has most of the precipitation ending before the cold air moves in. The NAM has cold air moving in early Wednesday evening while maintaining precipitation. The GFS has typically been very good, but the new NAM model has a chance to show its stuff tomorrow night.
So, this storm will be an interesting test of the new NAM model. If it's correct, expect a couple of inches of wet snow by daybreak Thursday. If the GFS is correct, expect just wet conditions, maybe a coating of wet snow on grassy surfaces. Will update again tomorrow.
posted: Dec 06 2011 at 7:55 pm
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Mon, 05 Dec 2011Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow on Thurs?
Too early to take seriously, but the new NAM model has significant snow for us at daybreak Thursday. Current NAM model has an intensifying low pressure system hugging the coastline late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. More than 4 inches is possible, according to the NAM. Stay tuned.
Monday 10 pm update- Tonight's NAM model keeps the colder air just west of Philadelphia for most of Wednesday night. The changeover to snow occurs early Thursday morning, but the heavier precipitation will have ended keeping accumulations very light in Philadelphia. Updates to continue.
posted: Dec 05 2011 at 10:31 pm
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Philadelphia Winter Weather- Snow on Thurs?
Too early to take seriously, but the new NAM model has significant snow for us at daybreak Thursday. Current NAM model has an intensifying low pressure system hugging the coastline late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. More than 4 inches is possible, according to the NAM. Stay tuned.
posted: Dec 05 2011 at 8:29 pm
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Fri, 02 Dec 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Fri PM
A similar pattern to last weekend, as colder air on Saturday quickly retreats as milder air moves in on Sunday ahead of a stalled cold front in the middle of the country. The weekend will be dry as a large high pressure system remains over us. The milder air moves in late Saturday and some mid-level cloudiness expected Sunday afternoon.
Sat 12/3: Sunny and a bit chilly. Some cloudiness very late afternoon. High 50.
Sun 12/4: Mostly sunny early, Mid-level cloudiness in the afternoon. Milder. High 57.
posted: Dec 02 2011 at 5:29 pm
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Wed, 30 Nov 2011Philadelphia Weekend Weather Outlook -Wed PM
A similar pattern to last weekend, as colder air on Saturday quickly retreats as milder air moves in on Sunday ahead of a stalled cold front in the middle of the country. The weekend will be dry as a large high pressure system remains over us.
From the Rockies to the Mississippi, very cold weather develop, but the jet configuration will keep the East coast mild and dry.
Sat 12/3: Sunny and a bit chilly. High 49.
Sun 12/4: A mix of sun and clouds. The amount of cloudiness is not certain at this time. Milder. High 56.
posted: Nov 30 2011 at 10:21 pm
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Sun, 27 Nov 2011Philadelphia Winter Climate Forecast- December
While climate forecasting is not my forte (for that matter, I don't think it's anyone's forte) I do like to share with my readers what I'm thinking about regarding the upcoming 2011-2012 winter season.
My regular readers know that two years ago, I put great stock in the solar cycle (and a lesser extent the sea surface temperature cycles) to predict a very cold winter.
We have now reached a point in the current solar cycle where the expected observed increase in total solar irradiance has become evident. We are two years away from the solar maximum. While this solar maximum will be significantly lower than our last two cycles, and we are coming off of a significantly lengthy solar minimum, it's my opinion that this coming winter will approach the very mild winters we had in 1999 and 2000.
During those winters, we had unseasonably warm periods throughout the winter. Certainly we had stretches of cold weather and snow, but the 60-70 degree temps we had this weekend were very similar at that stage of the solar cycle. Add to this the greenhouse gases and I think we will have large stretches of very mild weather this winter and on average it will be very warmer than normal.
In recent past winters, we haven't really seen winter-like weather until after December 15th and I expect that to occur this year as well. But overall, I think we'll see repeated long stretches of mild weather occurring in December, January, and February this season.
I guess we'll find out if the solar cycle does affect our winter this year.
posted: Nov 27 2011 at 8:58 pm
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Wed, 23 Nov 2011Philly Thanksgiving Weekend Outlook -Wed PM
The picture perfect weekend starts this Thursday, Thanksgiving day, with high pressure building in. High pressure will remain in control the entire weekend, as low pressure developing in the middle of the country cuts off.
All four days will have plenty of sunshine and mild temps near or above 60. Sunday may have some variable cloudiness at times during the day. Still quite nice!
Thur 11/24: Sunny and cool. High 55
Fri 11/25: Sunny and mild. High 61
Sat 11/26: Sunny and mild. High 63
Sun 11/27: Partly sunny and mild. High 61
posted: Nov 23 2011 at 11:14 am
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Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.
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